Kim Jong Un’s daughter, Kim Ju Ae, has appeared more frequently in the public sphere, fuelling speculation over whether North Korea is quietly laying the groundwork for the next succession process. 

However, the signals remain ambiguous, and speculation about the existence and potential role of Kim’s other children, including a reported son, leaves ample room for caution in drawing conclusions at this stage.

In order to address this gap, Hans Horan reviews what past successions reveal about how power is consolidated in Pyongyang and outlines plausible pathways ahead. These pathways include the distinct challenges a female or male successor could face, as well as variables that could shape the pace and stability of any transition. 

The key takeaway for policymakers: focus less on who succeeds Kim and more on how succession competition could unfold and what that could mean for internal turbulence and regional security, including the risk of provocations. 

Read the full publication here: https://www.38north.org/2025/12/succession-at-the-crossroads-scenarios-for-north-koreas-future/