At 38 North, Hans Horan examines how the US’ new “America First” foreign policy posture could reshape North Korea’s illicit arms trafficking and why it is creating a strategic blind spot.

In early December 2025, the Trump administration released its National Security Strategy (NSS), signalling a refocus away from the Indo-Pacific and towards regions closer to home, e.g., Latin America. The January 4, 2026 operation in Venezuela is presented as an early indicator of that shift.

However, as Washington revives a more confrontational foreign policy approach, adversarial (non) state actors may seek to strengthen their defences in response, with Pyongyang likely to become a more attractive military and economic partner.

To address this, Hans traces North Korea’s long history of “guerrilla internationalism” and illicit arms support to anti-Western actors, before assessing how today’s conditions, particularly the battlefield exposure for North Korean systems vis-a-vis the Ukraine conflict, could widen Pyongyang’s access to markets where embargo enforcement is weak and demand is rising.

The key takeaway for policy-makers: a reduced focus on North Korea amid weaker international sanctions enforcement could expand Pyongyang’s appeal as an alternative arms supplier, increasing the risk of cross-regional proliferation threats and future destabilising activity.

Read the full publication here: https://www.38north.org/2026/01/assessing-the-impact-of-the-us-new-foreign-policy-approach-on-north-koreas-arms-trafficking-activity/